A weak monsoon looms as MeT dept lowers its forecast
The India Meteorological Department has revised its monsoon rainfall forecast downward, indicating a potential weak monsoon season. The agency now predicts a 60% chance of deficient rainfall, with El Niño conditions expected to intensify. This could lead to significant challenges for agriculture and water resources across the country.
- ▪The seasonal rainfall forecast has been lowered from 92% to 90% of the long-period average.
- ▪There is a 60% probability of deficient rainfall this monsoon season, marking the lowest rainfall in 11 years if predictions hold.
- ▪El Niño conditions are expected to develop earlier and more intensely, impacting rainfall distribution.
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A weak monsoon looms as MeT dept lowers its forecastThe agency added that El Niño conditions were likely to evolve into moderate category through the monsoon season, and strong category post-monsoon.Updated on: May 30, 2026 6:10 AM ISTht_printShare viaCopy link New Delhi : The India Meteorological Department (IMD) on Friday revised its seasonal rainfall forecast downward — from 92% of the long-period average issued in April to 90% — and attached a 60% probability to a deficient season, meaning there is a better-than-even chance that total rainfall falls below the threshold that even qualifies as below-normal.IMD also assigned a 24% chance of a below-normal monsoon (90–95% of LPA), 14% for normal (96–104%), 2% for above-normal, and zero for excess.
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