AI has to replace the workers who were never born
Rapidly aging populations in major economies are creating a significant demographic drag that threatens to reduce income per person growth by up to one percentage point annually by 2050. This projected decline in economic output roughly matches the productivity gains currently expected from artificial intelligence, suggesting AI may be necessary to offset labor shortages. The article highlights that while automation and later retirement can mitigate these effects, the shrinking workforce poses a critical challenge for sustaining living standards in countries like South Korea, Japan, and China.
- ▪South Korea's total fertility rate dropped from 6.0 in 1960 to 0.72 in 2023, resulting in a working-age to elderly ratio that will fall to 1.25 by 2050.
- ▪Demographic drag is estimated to reduce income per person growth by 1.12 percentage points per year in South Korea and 0.90 in Spain between 2025 and 2050.
- ▪Mainstream forecasters expect artificial intelligence to provide a productivity boost that is roughly equivalent to the economic losses caused by shrinking working-age populations.
- ▪Extending the retirement age to 70 would nearly eliminate the demographic drag in Japan and China, though it would only halve the impact in South Korea.
- ▪Between 2025 and 2050, the United Nations projects that South Korea's working-age population will shrink by a third, while China's will fall 255 million below its peak.
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| Original publisher | Hacker News (AI / LLM) |
| Canonical URL | https://toex.substack.com/p/ai-workers-never-born |
| Publication time | Wed, 07 Oct 2026 19:18:06 +0000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-10-07T21:58:14.285Z |
| Last seen | 2026-10-07T21:58:14.285Z |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
AI has to replace the workers who were never bornIn the fastest-aging countries, the gains expected from AI barely cover the cost of a shrinking workforceOct 05, 2026ShareIn 1960 South Korea's total fertility rate, the number of children a woman would have over her lifetime at current rates, was 6.0. In 2023 it was 0.72. A rate of about 2.1 keeps a population stable in the long run, leaving migration aside.The effect on the country's age structure is just as dramatic. In 1990 Korea had 12 people aged 20 to 64 for every person over 65. This year it has 3.2. By 2050, on the United Nations' central projection, it will have 1.25.Korea is the extreme case, but the direction of travel is nearly universal.
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