AI Valuation Math
47fucb4r8curb4fc8f8r4bfic8r@47fucb4r8c69323The back-of-the-envelop math here is very wrong. Firstly, the $1t valuation is not justified by the metrics provided, because he gives no growth rate and no justification for a 20x earnings multiple--is he just extrapolating from the S&P 500? OpenAI is hitting a $42.6b run rate and a ~252% yoy growth rate.
- ▪47fucb4r8curb4fc8f8r4bfic8r@47fucb4r8c69323The back-of-the-envelop math here is very wrong.
- ▪Firstly, the $1t valuation is not justified by the metrics provided, because he gives no growth rate and no justification for a 20x earnings multiple--is he just extrapolating from the S&P 500?
- ▪OpenAI is hitting a $42.6b run rate and a ~252% yoy growth rate.
Hacker News (AI / LLM) files mainly under ai. We currently carry 3,121 of its stories.
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Record
| Original publisher | X (formerly Twitter) |
| Canonical URL | https://twitter.com/47fucb4r8c69323/status/2082802410616217798 |
| Publication time | Fri, 31 Jul 2026 21:16:28 +0000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-07-31T21:28:37.636Z |
| Last seen | 2026-07-31T21:28:37.636Z |
| Headline source | Publisher (no WeSearch rewrite) |
| Excerpt source | publisher body |
| Excerpt method | First ~120 words (~800 chars) of extracted publisher body, fair-use limited. |
| Summary | WeSearch · cerebras-chat (WeSearch summarizer) |
| Summary source text | contentText |
| Citation coverage | Summary is a WeSearch-generated derivative; primary citation is the original publisher URL. |
| Cluster | None |
| Cluster logic | Not yet clustered, or no peer story found in the clustering window. |
| Ranking reason | Story pages are not engagement-ranked. Hub feeds use recency, with optional source-diversified chronological ordering (cap consecutive stories per source). No personalized ranking. |
| Publisher visit | Yes — open original |
| Substitutes article? | No — link-out required for full text |
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WeSearch handling by dimension
| Indexing | May the item be indexed (stored, ranked, made findable)? | Allowed |
| Snippet | May a short excerpt of the publisher's text be shown? | Allowed |
| AI summary | May WeSearch generate its own short summary of the article? | Limited |
| Retrieval / RAG | May the content be exposed for third-party retrieval-augmented generation? | Not asserted |
| Model training | May the content be used to train AI models? | Not asserted |
| Commercial reuse | May the content be reused commercially? | Not permitted |
Basis: Derived from the published RSS/Atom feed. Contact: [email protected]. Reviewed: 2026-07-24.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
47fucb4r8curb4fc8f8r4bfic8r@47fucb4r8c69323The back-of-the-envelop math here is very wrong. Firstly, the $1t valuation is not justified by the metrics provided, because he gives no growth rate and no justification for a 20x earnings multiple--is he just extrapolating from the S&P 500? Oh dear, but hey lets run with it... OpenAI is hitting a $42.6b run rate and a ~252% yoy growth rate. Let's assume a 20x earnings multiple (Andrew isn't actually using the 80% gross margin here--he gets 20*x=1trillion, or $50billion earnings and for 100-200b rev that's a 25%-50% earnings margin--I honestly don't think he knows this because he doesn't know what he's doing).
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at X (formerly Twitter).
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