An Inflection Point for Prediction Markets
According to the prediction-market company Kalshi, that was the plan—the firm alleged that he made roughly $17,000 by betting on the platform that he wouldn’t appear at the speech. Kalshi flagged the wager to federal authorities, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency that regulates prediction markets, fined Santos over it in July. On Monday, Kalshi doubled down, levying a fine of its own and giving him the platform’s first-ever lifetime ban.Prediction-market companies, which let users make bets on the outcomes of all sorts of real-world events, have fully entered the mainstream over the past few years.
- ▪According to the prediction-market company Kalshi, that was the plan—the firm alleged that he made roughly $17,000 by betting on the platform that he wouldn’t appear at the speech.
- ▪Kalshi flagged the wager to federal authorities, and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), the agency that regulates prediction markets, fined Santos over it in July.
- ▪On Monday, Kalshi doubled down, levying a fine of its own and giving him the platform’s first-ever lifetime ban.Prediction-market companies, which let users make bets on the outcomes of all sorts of real-world events, have fully entered the
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| Publication time | 2026-09-02T18:59:00-04:00 |
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The Atlantic DailyAn Inflection Point for Prediction MarketsThe crackdown on insider trading has exposed the platforms’ fundamental contradictions.By Will GottsegenAlex Kent / The Washington Post / GettySeptember 2, 2026, 6:59 PM ET ShareSave This is an edition of The Atlantic Daily, a newsletter that guides you through the biggest stories of the day, helps you discover new ideas, and recommends the best in culture. Sign up for it here.The day before Donald Trump’s second State of the Union address, the former Representative George Santos shared a video of himself saying, in no uncertain terms, that he was “going to be there.” The next day, he didn’t show up.
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