Anatomy of a 5-4 Champions League Thriller: A Football Data Case Study
The Champions League semi-final first leg between PSG and Bayern ended in a surprising 5-4 victory for PSG, despite Bayern's statistical advantages. An analysis revealed that PSG consistently over-performs their expected goals, largely due to a few standout players. The second leg saw Bayern again outperform PSG on xG but ultimately lose the tie on aggregate.
- ▪PSG won the first leg against Bayern 5-4 despite trailing in xG and possession.
- ▪PSG has a history of over-performing their expected goals in knockout matches.
- ▪Bayern's defensive vulnerabilities were highlighted, particularly against counter-attacks and set pieces.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Champions League knockout games aren't usually 5-4 thrillers. April's PSG vs Bayern semi-final first leg was. Bayern had 57% possession, an xG of 3.06 to PSG's 1.90, and six big chances to PSG's two. PSG won anyway. I dug into the data to see what might be going on.TL;DRPSG beat Bayern 5-4 despite trailing on xG (3.06 to 1.90), possession (57%), and big chances (6 to 2). Expected Threat (xT) places Marquinhos as the most dangerous player on the pitch. What an analysis like this really requires is the ability to ask the 2nd, 3rd, and 4th question cheaply, which is what changes the patterns you can see.Even the data agrees that the game was the second most exciting Champions League knockout match across the past six seasons.
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