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Calculate your p[DOOM], An interactive article to think critically about AI risk
Stephen Fry tell you about us.The first thing to understand is that when it comes to forecasting the future, we should be thinking in terms of probabilities rather than absolutes. No one knows for sure what’s going to happen, and things become more uncertain when timelines go further out, and the variables increase in volatility. Currently, the variables are very volatile.We’re going to consider some specific areas of A.I. risk, then try to get a clear, zoomed-out picture of the overall risk landscape.To make this exercise more engaging, we’ll use something A.I. safety researchers call a ‘probability of doom’ or p[DOOM] score.
- ▪Stephen Fry tell you about us.The first thing to understand is that when it comes to forecasting the future, we should be thinking in terms of probabilities rather than absolutes.
- ▪No one knows for sure what’s going to happen, and things become more uncertain when timelines go further out, and the variables increase in volatility.
- ▪Currently, the variables are very volatile.We’re going to consider some specific areas of A.I. risk, then try to get a clear, zoomed-out picture of the overall risk landscape.To make this exercise more engaging, we’ll use something A.I. saf
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| Original publisher | Medium |
| Canonical URL | https://jesserichardson78.medium.com/calculate-your-probability-of-doom-6bd18de3e0e4 |
| Publication time | Sun, 11 Oct 2026 22:55:24 +0000 |
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Artificial IntelligenceCalculate your Probability of DOOM!Jesse Richardson21 min read·2 days ago--1ListenShareAn interactive article to think critically about AI risk.There’s no shortage of hot takes on A.I. futures, from post-scarcity utopias, through to prophesies of certain apocalyptic doom.For normal people who aren’t fond of the taste of culty Kool-Aid and extremism, this can seem a bit much; and yet there appear to be a lot of smart and credible people who think these kinds of extreme scenarios are no longer just science fiction.This article will help you understand what we do know; what we don’t yet have good evidence for; and how to evaluate the different risks using a critical thinking framework.For context, I’m one of 339 global AI experts working on the Forecasting Research…
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