Do Job Postings Show Early Labor‑Market Effects of AI?
The article examines whether job postings reflect early labor-market effects of AI, particularly after the release of ChatGPT in late 2022. Using AI exposure metrics and job-posting data, the authors find little evidence that AI has caused a distinct decline in hiring for more exposed occupations. While AI exposure remains limited across most jobs, firms are more likely to retrain workers than reduce hiring in AI-exposed roles.
- ▪The study uses an AI exposure metric from Anthropic combined with U.S. job-posting data from Lightcast to assess labor-market impacts.
- ▪Only less than 10 percent of workers and job vacancies are in occupations with high AI exposure (0.4 or above), and 40 percent are in jobs with zero measured AI exposure.
- ▪An event study comparing job postings before and after ChatGPT's release shows no significant disproportionate decline in postings for high-AI-exposure occupations.
- ▪Firms in the New York Fed’s Second District are more likely to retrain workers in AI-exposed occupations than to reduce hiring.
- ▪Tasks within an occupation are scored based on whether AI can automate them, and scores are aggregated to create an occupation-level AI exposure measure.
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| Original publisher | Liberty Street Economics |
| Canonical URL | https://libertystreeteconomics.newyorkfed.org/2026/05/do-job-postings-show-early-labor-market-effects-of-ai/ |
| Publication time | Sat, 16 May 2026 20:57:23 +0000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-05-16T21:05:19.014Z |
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« Federal Student Loan Defaults Return After Pandemic Pause | Main May 14, 2026 Do Job Postings Show Early Labor‑Market Effects of AI? Richard Audoly, Miles Guerin, and Giorgio Topa As generative AI tools become more widely used, a key issue is the technology’s impact on labor demand. Where might we find evidence of that impact? In this post, we examine whether early evidence of AI’s effect on the labor market appears in firms’ job postings. We combine an occupational measure of AI exposure with detailed U.S. job-posting data from Lightcast, which aggregates listings from company career pages, national and local job boards, and job-listing aggregators.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Liberty Street Economics.
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