Economists warn ‘super’ El Niño and oil shock could prop up global inflation
JPMorgan estimated that a super El Niño on its own would raise global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak, with the biggest impact typically occurring four to eight months after the onset of the weather shock.
- ▪JPMorgan estimated that a super El Niño on its own would raise global food inflation by about 0.7 percentage points at its peak, with the biggest impact typically occurring four to eight months after the onset of the weather shock.
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| Original publisher | The Globe and Mail |
| Canonical URL | https://www.theglobeandmail.com/business/economy/article-economists-warns-super-el-nino-and-oil-shock-could-prop-up-global/ |
| Publication time | Fri, 24 Jul 2026 15:47:23 +0000 |
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ShareSave for laterPlease log in to bookmark this story.Log InCreate Free AccountA rapidly intensifying El Niño weather pattern combined with higher energy prices could add 0.3 percentage points to global inflation next year, hitting emerging markets particularly hard, JPMorgan economists said in a report on Friday.Forecasts currently point to an 81 per cent probability that the current El Niño episode develops into a “very strong” or “super” El Niño by the end of the year and a 97 per cent chance that the conditions persist into next year.Such an event would rank among the strongest seen in recent decades and raise the risk of disruptions to global food production and supply chains.
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