Election Betting Markets Believe The Texas Senate Race Is A Toss-Up
The Texas Senate race is currently viewed as a toss-up by betting markets, despite Ken Paxton's recent victory in the GOP primary. Odds have narrowed significantly, with Paxton holding a slight edge over Democrat James Talarico. Analysts suggest that Paxton's controversial candidacy may provide Democrats with an opportunity for an upset in this traditionally Republican state.
- ▪Bettors on Polymarket give Paxton a 54% chance of winning against Talarico's 47%.
- ▪Talarico's odds improved after Trump's endorsement of Paxton, but did not last long.
- ▪The odds have shifted from 75-25 in favor of Republicans at the start of the year to nearly even now.
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BreakingBusinessElection Betting Markets Believe The Texas Senate Race Is A Toss-UpBySiladitya Ray,Forbes Staff. Siladitya Ray is a New Delhi-based Forbes news team reporter.Follow AuthorMay 27, 2026, 08:04am EDTMay 27, 2026, 08:04am EDTToplineBettors believe the Texas Senate race remains a toss-up despite Attorney General Ken Paxton’s thumping win in the GOP primary runoff Tuesday night—after Democrats’ odds have narrowed in recent months—with some pollsters suggesting the result slightly boosts the chances of a blue upset in the red state.
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