Fed to hike? When traders see a rate increase coming
Traders are increasingly predicting that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates for the first time since 2023. Current odds suggest a 64% chance of a rate hike by July 2027, with a 43% likelihood of action occurring this year. These predictions are influenced by rising U.S. Treasury yields, ongoing inflation concerns, and stable oil prices amidst geopolitical tensions.
- ▪Traders on Kalshi predict a 64% chance of a rate hike by July 2027.
- ▪There is a 43% chance that tighter policy could happen as soon as this year.
- ▪Odds of a rate hike have increased due to rising U.S. Treasury yields and inflation concerns.
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| Original publisher | CNBC — Top |
| Canonical URL | https://www.cnbc.com/2026/05/19/fed-to-hike-when-traders-see-a-rate-increase-coming.html |
| Publication time | Tue, 19 May 2026 20:08:57 GMT |
| Retrieval time | 2026-05-19T20:39:58.097Z |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
While President Donald Trump made his pick for chair of the Federal Reserve with interest rate cuts in mind, his appointee may preside over the first rate hikes since 2023. That's according to traders on prediction market platform Kalshi, where there's a rising likelihood the Fed will move to increase rates in the next year. Traders place 64% odds on the next interest rate hike coming by July 2027. They also think there's a 43% chance tighter policy happens as soon as this year. Odds of a rate hike have jumped in the last 24 hours in reaction to ballooning yields on U.S. Treasurys, concern that inflation will continue to march higher and as oil prices show no signs of materially falling in the midst of the unresolved U.S.-Iran war.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at CNBC — Top.
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