From 'oil' to 'shock', here's what Kalshi traders expect Fed Chair Kevin Warsh will say this week
One Kalshi contract, asking traders what will be the Fed decision in July, projects a nearly 75% chance that the Fed will maintain rates at current levels. To be sure, odds of a rate hike this week have increased to around 38% from 16% last week, per FedWatch. Similarly, another Kalshi contract asking when the next Fed hike will be, shows 68% odds of one taking place this year.
- ▪One Kalshi contract, asking traders what will be the Fed decision in July, projects a nearly 75% chance that the Fed will maintain rates at current levels.
- ▪To be sure, odds of a rate hike this week have increased to around 38% from 16% last week, per FedWatch.
- ▪Similarly, another Kalshi contract asking when the next Fed hike will be, shows 68% odds of one taking place this year.
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Though Kalshi traders see a likelihood of Warsh referring to an energy supply shock, Bank of America on Monday said it is "textbook policy" for the central bank to ignore responding to it.The Fed is largely expected to keep its overnight benchmark rate unchanged, per the CME Group's FedWatch tool.Evercore ISI noted that, "It would be odd to [hike rates] right after the better June inflation print given an uncomplicated path to hike in September if needed.""But we cannot take the probability too low given Warsh's refusal to set out his strategy, and renewed US-Iran conflict that has revived the energy shock and pushed up yields," the firm added.
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