Goldman Sachs models favor France for 2026 World Cup, England gaining ground

Goldman Sachs’ internal models now place France as the frontrunner to win the 2026 FIFA World Cup, surpassing Spain, which had been the favorite for much of the competition. This shift follows France’s victory over Morocco and England’s continued progress after defeating Mexico. The models, which rely on Elo ratings and historical match data, have also noted a rise in England’s chances, reflecting their strong performances thus far. Market participants appear to react to these updates, as evidenced by shifting probabilities in the prediction markets. France’s elevated status in Goldman’s models is consistent with the latest market pricing, where France is currently shown at 39% for a YES outcome in winning the World Cup.

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