Iran asserts control over Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions

Iran’s Defense Ministry Spokesman reiterated Iran’s control over the Strait of Hormuz amid ongoing tensions. Strait of Hormuz traffic returning to normal by May 15 is at 15.5% YES, down from 20% yesterday. The statement signals no imminent resolution to the blockade, keeping odds low for a return to normal shipping traffic. The May 15 market has dropped as traders grow more skeptical about near-term de-escalation. With 21 days to the resolution date, the market is thin: $4,658 moves the price 5 points. Meanwhile, crude oil prices reaching an all-time high by April 30 trades at 1.1% YES. The short timeframe until April 30 limits the impact of Iran’s latest statement on this market, even given the potential for supply disruptions through Hormuz. A YES share at 15.5¢ pays $1 if resolved, a 6.5x return. For this bet to pay off, traders would need to see credible de-escalation signs, such as US-Iran peace talks resuming or significant US naval operations clearing the strait. Watch for CENTCOM updates or Iranian diplomatic moves. Any shift in operational language from the US or a new diplomatic initiative could move these odds quickly. Get prediction market intelligence as a structured API feed. Early access waitlist.

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