Is This the End of Close Elections?
The article discusses the decline of competitive elections in the U.S. due to gerrymandering and partisan sorting. Political scientist Lee Drutman highlights that Republican-controlled legislatures are targeting majority-minority districts, which could significantly reduce Black representation in Congress. The number of competitive House elections has dropped dramatically, from around 50 two decades ago to only 15 in the upcoming election.
- ▪Gerrymandering and partisan sorting have led to a record-low number of competitive House seats.
- ▪Republican-controlled legislatures may target up to 19 majority-minority districts held by Democrats.
- ▪The number of meaningful toss-up elections has decreased from approximately 50 to just 15 over the past 20 years.
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| Original publisher | NYT — Opinion |
| Canonical URL | https://www.nytimes.com/video/opinion/100000010905501/is-this-the-end-of-close-elections.html |
| Publication time | Wed, 20 May 2026 02:27:38 +0000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-05-20T02:29:58.969Z |
| Last seen | 2026-05-20T02:29:58.969Z |
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| Summary source text | contentText |
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| Ranking reason | Story pages are not engagement-ranked. Hub feeds use recency, with optional source-diversified chronological ordering (cap consecutive stories per source). No personalized ranking. |
| Publisher visit | Yes — open original |
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| Retrieval / RAG | May the content be exposed for third-party retrieval-augmented generation? | Not asserted |
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| Commercial reuse | May the content be reused commercially? | Not permitted |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
new video loaded: Is This the End of Close Elections?transcriptBacktranscriptIs This the End of Close Elections?Rampant gerrymandering and intense partisan sorting have shrunk the number of competitive House seats to a record-low. The political scientist Lee Drutman explains how on “The Ezra Klein Show.”So walk me through what’s likely to happen in, particularly, the Southern states in this post-Callais era. OK. There are some estimates that Republican-controlled legislatures across the South could target as many as 19 majority-minority districts, all held by Democrats. I don’t know, they may be a little cautious in some places, given that it’s not a great year for Republicans. But it’s basically eliminating a lot of majority-minority districts.
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