It looks like the Atlantic storm season may finally produce a hurricane
A low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico is expected to develop into Tropical Storm Isaias, potentially becoming the first hurricane of an exceptionally quiet Atlantic season. The development is significant because the current season has been the quietest on record, largely due to a historically strong El Niño event that has increased wind shear. Forecast models suggest Isaias may strengthen into a hurricane before making landfall between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle by the weekend.
- ▪The Atlantic hurricane season has been exceptionally quiet this year, with no hurricanes formed to date, a first in the modern era of satellite and aircraft monitoring.
- ▪A strengthening El Niño is the primary driver of the quiet season, as it generates high wind shear that disrupts the organization of tropical systems.
- ▪The developing system, which will be named Isaias if it forms, is forecast to traverse very warm central Gulf waters between 28°C and 30°C, providing fuel for potential intensification.
- ▪Most model guidance indicates that Isaias will make landfall between southeastern Louisiana and the Florida Panhandle on Friday or Saturday.
- ▪Although heavy rainfall is certain, the threat from sustained winds and storm surge depends on how well the system organizes and strengthens.
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| Canonical URL | https://arstechnica.com/science/2026/10/it-looks-like-the-atlantic-storm-season-may-finally-produce-a-hurricane/ |
| Publication time | Tue, 06 Oct 2026 19:55:50 +0000 |
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Isaias It looks like the Atlantic storm season may finally produce a hurricane To date, this Atlantic tropics year has been exceptionally quiet. Eric Berger – Oct 6, 2026 3:55 pm | 10 Google DeepMind forecast for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: Google Weather Lab Google DeepMind forecast for a tropical system in the Gulf of Mexico. Credit: Google Weather Lab Text settings Story text Size Small Standard Large Width * Standard Wide Links Standard Orange * Subscribers only Learn more Minimize to nav A low-pressure system in the western Gulf of Mexico should soon become a tropical storm, and based on the latest forecast modeling, it has a decent chance of becoming a hurricane. Normally, a hurricane forming in early October would not be particularly noteworthy.
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