Japan’s megabanks post record profits, but analysts warn growth may slow as risks mount
Japan's megabanks have reported record profits, driven by higher domestic interest rates and strong corporate funding demand. However, analysts warn that growth may slow due to rising credit costs and geopolitical risks, particularly in the Middle East. The banks are closely monitoring these developments, as they could impact their earnings outlook.
- ▪Japanese banks are experiencing record profits due to structural improvements in the economy.
- ▪Analysts predict that profit growth will be challenged by higher credit costs and geopolitical risks.
- ▪Banks are particularly concerned about the potential impact of Middle East tensions on their earnings.
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| Publication time | Thu, 21 May 2026 06:35:46 GMT |
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Banks also face higher credit costs, competition for deposits and pressure from broader macroeconomic and geopolitical risks, according to Nishizawa."As such, sustainability of profit growth at current levels is likely to be challenged," she added. The earnings improvements appear more structural than in previous cycles, driven by higher domestic interest rates, inflation and stronger corporate funding demand, said Koichi Niwa, an analyst at UBS.Stronger wholesale and corporate finance activity has benefited large Japanese banks and helped lift recent earnings amid renewed investor interest in the sector, Niwa said.But financing mergers and acquisitions, large corporate lending, overseas loans and structured transactions often require more capital than domestic lending."As a result, even…
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