Mojtaba Khamenei halts US talks, raising focus on Iran leadership change
Mojtaba Khamenei has halted talks with the US, citing perceived arrogance from American officials. This decision has intensified speculation regarding potential changes in Iran's leadership by the end of the year. Market reactions indicate a low probability of regime change in the near term, despite ongoing internal tensions.
- ▪Mojtaba Khamenei's decision to stop US talks is seen as a hardline stance that may impact internal power dynamics in Iran.
- ▪The market currently reflects a 3% chance of the Iranian regime falling by May 31, unchanged from previous assessments.
- ▪Statements from influential bodies like the Assembly of Experts could significantly influence the odds of leadership change.
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Mojtaba Khamenei halts US talks, raising focus on Iran leadership change Iran Leadership Change Share Add us on Google by Estefano Gomez Apr. 29, 2026 Iranian MP Zohourian says Mojtaba Khamenei halted US talks after “arrogance” shown by the US, putting the Iran leadership change market by December 31 into focus as traders weigh whether blocked diplomacy increases the odds of internal instability. Market reaction The fall of the Iranian regime by May 31 sits at 3% YES, unchanged from a day ago. The April 30 regime fall market is virtually inactive at 0.1% YES. Despite a 50-point spike earlier this month, traders are not treating today’s news as a signal of imminent collapse. The Iran leadership change market lacks precise odds at this time.
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