Monsoon onset likely to be more frequent in May
A recent study indicates that the onset of the southwest monsoon in Kerala is increasingly occurring in May rather than the traditional June start. This shift is attributed to climate change, which is also causing a decline in overall rainfall while intensifying extreme downpours in certain regions. The findings highlight the need for adaptive strategies to manage the changing rainfall patterns and associated risks.
- ▪The southwest monsoon onset has advanced to May in recent decades due to global warming.
- ▪Kerala is experiencing a decline in overall rainfall but an increase in extreme precipitation events, particularly in central and northern regions.
- ▪The study suggests that climate change is causing the earlier development of low-pressure systems, contributing to the shift in monsoon onset.
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Although June 1 is traditionally considered the beginning of the rainy season in Kerala, an analysis of southwest monsoon onset data from 1901 to 2025 reveals that the monsoon has predominantly advanced to May in recent decades due to various factors, including global warming. Furthermore, Kerala is experiencing a paradox: while overall rainfall is declining, isolated extreme downpours are becoming more intense, especially in parts of central and northern Kerala adjacent to the Western Ghats, increasing the risk of floods.A paper titled ‘Analysis of Temporal and Spatial Variations in Extreme Precipitation over Kerala,’ published in the Journal of Agrometeorology by a group of researchers headed by P.S.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at The Hindu — Top.
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