Nikkei: Iran to reopen Strait of Hormuz 30 days after US deal
Iran plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz 30 days after finalizing a US deal to end hostilities. A ceasefire between the US and Iran is expected to be extended for 60 days, according to a Nikkei report. Market confidence in the ceasefire extension has increased, while full traffic restoration in the Strait of Hormuz remains uncertain.
- ▪Iran will reopen the Strait of Hormuz 30 days after a US deal is finalized.
- ▪A ceasefire between the US and Iran is set to be extended for 60 days.
- ▪Market confidence in the ceasefire extension has risen from 67% to 73.5% within 24 hours.
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## Market Snapshot The US-Iran ceasefire extension market (June 7 deadline) is priced at 73.5% YES, up from 67% 24 hours ago. The Strait of Hormuz normalization market (May 31 deadline) sits at 3.4% YES, down from 4%. ## Key Takeaways – Pricing in the June 7 ceasefire extension market appears consistent with growing participant confidence that a formal agreement is approaching, following the Nikkei report. – The Hormuz normalization market’s sub-4% pricing suggests participants view full traffic restoration by May 31 as highly unlikely, consistent with the reported 30-day post-deal timeline. – A 52-point gap between the May 26 (21%) and June 7 (74%) ceasefire sub-markets suggests markets view the most probable announcement window as falling after May 26.
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