Oil drops 20% from 2026 peak on optimism over U.S.-Iran ceasefire talks
Oil prices have decreased by 20% from their peak in 2026 due to optimism surrounding U.S.-Iran ceasefire negotiations. Despite the potential for peace, Iranian military actions continue to pose risks to energy supply routes. Analysts indicate that crude loadings in the Gulf remain significantly low, reflecting ongoing tensions in the region.
- ▪Energy prices surged after the war began on February 28.
- ▪The U.S. and Iran have mostly agreed on a 60-day ceasefire memorandum, pending approval from President Trump.
- ▪Iran's crude loadings for May are below 0.3 million barrels per day, a sharp decline from previous months.
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Energy prices have skyrocketed since the war began on Feb. 28. Seaborne crude has largely been prevented from passing through the Hormuz Strait — the critical shipping lane between Iran and Oman, which accounted for about 20% of global energy supply before the conflict. The U.S. and Iran are understood to have "mostly agreed" on the terms of a 60-day memorandum of understanding to extend the ceasefire, though the deal still needs sign-off from President Donald Trump.Despite renewed prospects for peace, strikes continued Thursday, with Iranian forces firing ballistic missiles at Kuwait and sending attack drones towards the Strait.Noting the attacks, UBS said there is still "little evidence" of any short-term improvement in vessel traffic or energy flows through the region.In a note, UBS…
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