Oil Forecasts Raised As Prolonged Strait Of Hormuz Disruption Continues
Oil price forecasts have been raised due to the ongoing disruption of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz, which persists eight weeks after U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran. Despite some oil being rerouted via pipelines, about 14 million barrels per day of supply remain affected. With no resolution in peace talks and continued flow restrictions, markets face sustained upward pressure. Higher prices may be necessary to trigger demand destruction under a prolonged disruption scenario.
- ▪Eight weeks have passed since U.S. and Israeli strikes on Iran triggered the Strait of Hormuz disruption.
- ▪Approximately 14 million barrels per day of oil supply are currently impacted by the blockade.
- ▪Peace talks between the U.S. and Iran have stalled, prolonging uncertainty in oil markets.
- ▪Some oil is being diverted via alternative pipelines, but flows through the Strait remain severely restricted.
- ▪Higher oil prices across crude and refined products may be needed to reduce demand under prolonged disruption.
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