Patrick Artus: 'Wars are economically irrational. Yet, the risk of new conflicts remains high'
The article discusses the increasing risk of global conflicts, highlighting recent wars and tensions in various regions. It argues that despite economic ties, trade relations do not guarantee peace, as evidenced by the fallout from the Ukraine invasion. The author identifies nostalgia for imperial pasts and ideological divides as key factors contributing to the heightened risk of war.
- ▪Recent conflicts in Ukraine, the Middle East, and Sudan indicate a rising risk of war.
- ▪Economic ties do not prevent conflict, as shown by the drastic decline in trade between the EU and Russia after the Ukraine invasion.
- ▪Nostalgia for imperial pasts and ideological divides between democracies and authoritarian regimes are significant factors in the current geopolitical landscape.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
The wars in Ukraine since 2022 and in the Middle East in 2026, the civil war in Sudan, as well as growing tensions around Taiwan, all bear witness to this trend. Are these the early signs of a new conflict on the scale of World War II? At the very least, these developments show that trade relations do not offer protection against war. The example of Russia and the European Union is particularly telling: Despite significant economic ties before 2022, the invasion of Ukraine led to a sudden rupture, with a 61% fall in European exports to Russia and an 89% drop in imports from that country. There are five main reasons why the risk of war has become so high today. The first is nostalgia in some countries for their imperial past.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Le Monde (EN).
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