Simon Fawthrop: How did the polls get it so wrong in Bromley and Bexley?
The recent local elections in Bromley and Bexley saw the Conservative Party maintain control, contrary to predictions from various polls. Factors contributing to this outcome included the local Conservatives' strong performance on council issues and a rejection of the Reform Party's campaign tactics. Ultimately, voters favored the traditional Conservative values over the negative messaging from opposition parties.
- ▪Polls had predicted a shift in power towards the Reform Party in Bromley and Bexley, but the Conservatives retained control.
- ▪Local Conservatives emphasized their effective governance and lower council tax compared to neighboring Kent.
- ▪The Reform Party's campaign faced criticism for its top-down approach and lack of local engagement during hustings.
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| Original publisher | ConservativeHome |
| Canonical URL | https://conservativehome.com/2026/05/18/simon-fawthrop-how-did-the-polls-get-it-so-wrong-in-bromley-and-bexley/ |
| Publication time | Mon, 18 May 2026 05:10:11 +0000 |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Cllr Simon Fawthrop represents Petts Wood & Knoll Ward on Bromley Council. Go back a couple of weeks and the PollCheck website along with MRP polls was predicting that Bromley Council and Bexley Council would be either Reform run Councils or Reform as the largest party. It didn’t happen, because both boroughs remain firmly under Conservative control. Here’s my account of the factors that impacted the Bromley campaign. So why the discrepancy, was it the Greater London factor, or by being next to Kent County Council that allowed comparisons to be made? Local conservatives in Bromley made great play on being a well-run local authority. Comparably, Bromley’s Council Tax was £130.00 per year cheaper than Kent. Our stance on Council Tax benefits is the toughest in the Country.
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