Strategic Coercion Within Alliances: The Greenland Sovereignty Game as an AI Stress Test
The article discusses the Greenland sovereignty crisis as a case study for understanding strategic coercion within alliances. It uses multi-agent simulations to analyze how different geopolitical actors respond to pressure from a dominant member. The findings reveal significant differences in escalation behavior among models based on their origin and highlight the challenges of achieving peaceful resolutions in such scenarios.
- ▪The study examines the U.S. push to acquire Greenland from Denmark between 2019 and 2026.
- ▪Eight frontier models were tested in a multi-agent simulation across 3,604 games to analyze their geopolitical roles.
- ▪Coercion framing increased escalation rates significantly, with peaceful acquisition occurring in only 1.9% of games.
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Physics > Physics and Society arXiv:2605.22841 (physics) [Submitted on 11 May 2026] Title:Strategic Coercion Within Alliances: The Greenland Sovereignty Game as an AI Stress Test Authors:Rommin Adl, Peyton Williams View a PDF of the paper titled Strategic Coercion Within Alliances: The Greenland Sovereignty Game as an AI Stress Test, by Rommin Adl and 1 other authors View PDF HTML (experimental) Abstract:What happens when the strongest alliance member pressures a weaker member over territory and strategic control? We examine the Greenland sovereignty crisis as a stress test for LLM geopolitics, centered on the 2019-2026 U.S. push to acquire Greenland from the Kingdom of Denmark.
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