The Future of AI and Trade
The impact of AI on trade is becoming increasingly evident, particularly in the demand for essential components like chips and servers. Research indicates that AI-related trade has significantly increased, especially in the United States, which is central to global supply chains. As the U.S. strengthens its domestic capabilities, it also seeks trusted international partners to ensure a steady supply of necessary inputs.
- ▪AI-related trade in the United States rose by two-thirds in 2025, amounting to an estimated $220 billion.
- ▪The U.S. accounts for most global semiconductor sales and is making efforts to increase production through initiatives like the CHIPS Act.
- ▪The U.S. needs trusted trading partners to secure essential inputs, especially as geopolitical tensions rise and trade restrictions spread.
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For all the constant buzz around AI, broad-based announcements about how AI has boosted profits are noticeably missing. The reason for this loud silence: it hasn’t happened—yet.AI is not an immaterial vapor hovering above the economy. The models that will power future change run on a foundation of physical inputs: cables, turbines, chips, and copper. These are bought and sold all over the world. This is why the one area AI is having a measurable effect on trade.According to recent research from the McKinsey Global Institute, shipments of the chips, servers, and networking equipment needed to build data centers increased by almost 40% in 2025, accounting for a third of global trade growth.
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