The Myth of the ‘Escalation Trap’
Eli Lake critiques Robert Pape's assertion that Iran is winning the war and will emerge as a major world power. He argues that despite significant military losses, Pape believes Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz grants it newfound power. Lake challenges the notion that Iran's situation is as favorable as Pape suggests.
- ▪Robert Pape claims Iran is winning the war despite its military losses.
- ▪Pape argues that Iran's control over the Strait of Hormuz positions it as a major world power.
- ▪Eli Lake disputes Pape's perspective on Iran's strength and future influence.
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| Original publisher | The Free Press |
| Canonical URL | https://www.thefp.com/p/the-myth-of-the-escalation-trap |
| Publication time | Tue, 28 Apr 2026 23:21:55 GMT |
| Retrieval time | 2026-04-28T23:30:58.764Z |
| Last seen | 2026-04-28T23:35:27.633Z |
| Headline source | Publisher (no WeSearch rewrite) |
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| Summary source text | contentText |
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| Publisher visit | Yes — open original |
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| Commercial reuse | May the content be reused commercially? | Not permitted |
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Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
The Myth of the ‘Escalation Trap’Robert Pape is wrong to argue that Iran controls the trajectory of the war and that there are no viable options to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, writes Eli Lake. (Jacquelyn Martin via AP Photo)Robert Pape has emerged as a star commentator on the Iran war. Is his signature idea hokum?By Eli Lake04.28.26 — InternationalFOLLOW COLUMN --:----:--Upgrade to Listen5 minsProduced by ElevenLabs using AI narration226177For University of Chicago political scientist Robert Pape, Iran is winning the war. Never mind the decapitation of its military and political leadership or the destruction of the country’s navy, air force, and nuclear program, and of much of its defense industrial base.
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