The optimal Bayesian update?
The optimal Bayesian update? by Tyler Cowen July 24, 2026 at 2:52 am in Current Affairs Web/Tech I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.
- ▪The optimal Bayesian update? by Tyler Cowen July 24, 2026 at 2:52 am in Current Affairs Web/Tech I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1.
- ▪“This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before.
- ▪“This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before.
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The optimal Bayesian update? by Tyler Cowen July 24, 2026 at 2:52 am in Current Affairs Web/Tech I see at least three updates one might make from the recent OAI/Hugging Face hacking incident: 1. “This happened sooner than I expected, and the story is more dramatic than I expected,” therefore I am more worried than before. 2. “This happened, and the inferior Chinese cyber-defense seems to have performed just fine,” therefore I am less worried than before. 3. “This happened, and as far as we can tell, absolutely no one was harmed,” therefore I am less worried than before. Obviously the net impact, from those bare hypotheses, is indeterminate. And yet few people seem to be paying much heed to #2 or #3. Joshua Saxe from the cyber world has some relevant observations.
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