The Strongest El Niño Ever
The Strongest El Niño EverWith all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting eventZeke HausfatherJul 13, 202631885114ShareI’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C.
- ▪The Strongest El Niño EverWith all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting eventZeke HausfatherJul 13, 202631885114ShareI’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data.
- ▪There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is.
- ▪For context, the gap between the strongest and the fifth strongest El Niño of the past 150 years is only about 0.5C.
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The Strongest El Niño EverWith all the July runs in, dynamical models give a ~90% chance of a record-setting eventZeke HausfatherJul 13, 202631885114ShareI’m generally pretty measured in how I discuss climate data. There has been only one time in recent years when I was truly shocked: when global temperatures came in for September 2023 at a full 0.5C warmer than any prior September on record.1 Once until today, that is. With the July runs now in from 667 ensemble members across 14 different seasonal forecast models, it looks like this year’s El Niño is not only very likely to be the strongest event since reliable records began – it may end up the strongest by a truly mind-blowing margin.SubscribeThe multi-model median for the event’s peak (measured as detrended sea surface temperature…
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