Think Australia would be better off with less migration? The numbers tell a different story
Australia's Treasury report indicates that maintaining high levels of migration is essential to support the economy and fund an ageing population. The analysis shows that reducing net overseas migration would worsen the dependency ratio and increase the projected government deficit. Despite political debates, the data suggests that migration helps sustain living standards and economic growth in the face of declining fertility rates.
- ▪Australia's fertility rate is currently around 1.5 and is projected to drop to 1.34 over the next 40 years, leading to deaths outnumbering births by the mid-2060s.
- ▪The Treasury's baseline forecast assumes a net overseas migration figure of 235,000 people per year to support economic growth.
- ▪A scenario with lower migration and fertility results in a higher dependency ratio of 43 compared to 40 in the baseline case by the mid-2060s.
- ▪Reducing population growth through lower migration would increase the projected underlying cash deficit to 2.4% and raise gross debt as a share of GDP by nearly 10 percentage points.
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| Original publisher | The Guardian — World |
| Canonical URL | https://www.theguardian.com/australia-news/2026/sep/21/australia-migration-ageing-population-labor-analysis-ntwnfb |
| Publication time | Mon, 21 Sep 2026 09:35:08 GMT |
| Retrieval time | 2026-09-21T09:43:49.086Z |
| Last seen | 2026-09-21T09:43:49.086Z |
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For those who think we would be better off with less migration, Treasury’s analysis provides some evidence that the opposite is true. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenFor those who think we would be better off with less migration, Treasury’s analysis provides some evidence that the opposite is true. Photograph: Bloomberg/Getty ImagesAustralian immigration and asylumAnalysisThink Australia would be better off with less migration? The numbers tell a different storyPatrick ComminsThe population is ageing and we’re having fewer babies.
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