Traders are skeptical of Iran timeline for Strait of Hormuz reopening
Traders are expressing skepticism regarding Iran's timeline for reopening the Strait of Hormuz. While Iranian state television reported a draft framework with the U.S., the White House has denied such an agreement exists. Traders currently estimate a 60% chance that normal flow will resume by August 1, a slight increase from previous odds.
- ▪Iranian state television reported a draft framework of a memorandum of understanding with the U.S.
- ▪The White House denied the existence of any framework with Iran.
- ▪Traders have increased their confidence in a return to normal flow by August 1, estimating a 60% chance.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Reuters cited Iranian state television, which said it had a draft framework of a memorandum of understanding with the U.S., where the detail was learned. The White House denied the existence of any framework with Iran. Traders are more confident that flows will return to normal by Aug. 1. They put 60% odds on it happening, higher than the 50-50 chance they had before the reports.However, all of these odds are lower than chances traders had over the weekend, when there appeared to be a potential imminent announcement of a deal between the two countries. Odds that traffic in the strait returned to normal by July were as high as 50% on Sunday.Disclosure: CNBC and Kalshi have a commercial relationship that includes customer acquisition and a minority investment.
Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at CNBC — Top.
Discussion
0 commentsMore from CNBC — Top
