Trump rejects Iran offer, Tehran claims resilience amid US pressure
Trump has rejected Iran's latest negotiation offer, prompting Iran to assert its ability to withstand U.S. pressure through military and economic resilience. Prediction markets now reflect low confidence in a near-term resolution, with sharply declining odds of Iran surrendering enriched uranium by key deadlines. Markets tied to Iran's nuclear program and regime stability show minimal expectations for rapid diplomatic progress. Traders cite thin order books and potential catalysts like Omani mediation or IAEA reports as possible market movers.
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Trump has rejected Iran’s latest negotiation offer, and Iran says it can endure US pressures by citing military and market resilience. The Polymarket contract for Iran surrendering its enriched uranium stockpile by April 30 sits at 0.5% YES, down from 6% just 24 hours ago. ## Market reaction Trump’s rejection has driven down several markets tied to Iran’s nuclear negotiations. The June 30 uranium surrender contract dropped to 21.5% YES from 26% yesterday. The December 31 contract is at 39.5% YES. Traders are pricing in low probability of any near-term resolution. The market on the Iranian regime falling by June 30 ticked down slightly to 7.5% YES, consistent with Iran’s stated confidence in outlasting US pressure.
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