UK pay growth slows to 3.9% before crunch interest rates decision
UK wage growth slowed to 3.9% in the three months to July, reflecting a cooling labor market and renewed cost-of-living pressures driven by the Iran war. This figure is expected to determine the upcoming state pension increase under the triple lock mechanism. The Bank of England faces a dilemma as it prepares for a key interest rate decision amid rising oil prices and persistent inflation.
- ▪Average growth in total UK earnings eased to 3.9% in the three months to July, down from 4.1% in the previous period.
- ▪The Bank of England is expected to hold the base rate at 3.75% on Thursday, though markets anticipate potential future increases to 4.75% by the end of next year.
- ▪UK unemployment remained steady at 4.9%, while job vacancies hit their lowest level outside the pandemic period for over a decade.
- ▪Oil prices have risen above $107 a barrel due to the Middle East conflict, contributing to a renewed cost-of-living squeeze for British consumers.
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| Original publisher | World news | The Guardian |
| Canonical URL | https://www.theguardian.com/business/2026/sep/15/uk-pay-growth-interest-rates-unemployment-inflation-oil-price |
| Publication time | Tue, 15 Sep 2026 06:31:20 GMT |
| Retrieval time | 2026-09-15T06:36:51.589Z |
| Last seen | 2026-09-15T06:36:51.589Z |
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The headline rate of UK inflation is expected to have risen above 3% in August. Photograph: Mike Kemp/In Pictures/Getty ImagesView image in fullscreenThe headline rate of UK inflation is expected to have risen above 3% in August. Photograph: Mike Kemp/In Pictures/Getty ImagesEconomicsUK pay growth slows to 3.9% before crunch interest rates decisionFigure likely to dictate rise in state pension triple lock, as workers face inflation squeeze fuelled by oil price rises Business live – latest updates Richard Partington Senior economics correspondentTue 15 Sep 2026 02.31 EDTFirst published on Tue 15 Sep 2026 02.25 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleWage growth in the UK slowed in July as workers came under pressure from a renewed cost of living squeeze fuelled by the Iran war, highlighting…
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