US jets strike Iranian vessels near Strait of Hormuz amid rising tensions
US fighter jets have reportedly struck Iranian vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, escalating military tensions between the two nations. This incident coincided with ongoing negotiations in Qatar, raising concerns about regional stability. Market reactions indicate a potential increase in the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace and a slight rise in the probability of a US invasion of Iran.
- ▪US jets targeted Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps speedboats near Bandar Abbas.
- ▪The incident occurred while US and Iranian negotiators were meeting in Qatar.
- ▪Market pricing suggests skepticism about the normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz.
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## Market Snapshot In the “Iran closes its airspace by May 31” market, YES is priced at 18.5%, down from 38% a day ago. The “Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027” market shows a YES pricing of 19.5%, up from 18% 24 hours ago. The “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31” market remains steady at 66% YES. ## Key Takeaways – Recent US strikes on Iranian vessels appear to increase the likelihood of Iran closing its airspace, as reflected by market pricing. – The probability of a US invasion of Iran seems to have risen slightly in response to the reported military actions. – Market pricing suggests continued skepticism about the normalization of traffic in the Strait of Hormuz by the deadline.
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