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What Five Major Forecasts Say About Republican Chances of Losing the Senate

What Five Major Forecasts Say About Republican Chances of Losing the Senate

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The other competitive races are Georgia and North Carolina, which Cook rates as lean Democrat.The biggest recent change came in New Hampshire, where Cook moved the Senate race from "lean Democrat" to "toss-up" on September 15. The race is between Democratic Representative Chris Pappas and former Republican Senator John E. Sununu, who is seeking a return to the Senate nearly two decades after leaving office.

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Canonical URLhttps://www.newsweek.com/what-five-major-forecasts-say-about-republican-chances-of-losing-the-senate-12457337
Publication timeFri, 18 Sep 2026 05:00:00 -0400
Retrieval time2026-09-19T06:24:23.699Z
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By Jesus MesaReporter0ShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberSee more of our trusted coverage when you search.Prefer Newsweek on Googleto see more of our trusted coverage when you search.Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority this November, and for most of the past year, forecasters treated that math as close to settled. Democrats need to flip at least four Republican-held seats without losing any of their own, in a map that is offering them few obvious targets.A string of strong generic ballot polls for Democrats, shifting ratings in New Hampshire and Ohio, and a widening gap between rival forecasting models have turned a race that once looked like a formality for the GOP into one of the more genuinely uncertain Senate cycles in years.Whether that uncertainty reflects real…

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