Why are Murders Down in Baltimore?
Murders in Baltimore have significantly decreased since 2022, with April 2026 recording the lowest monthly homicide total since 1970. The city has implemented a focused deterrence program to intervene in the murder cycle before it occurs. This approach combines proactive policing with support services for individuals at risk of violence.
- ▪In April 2026, Baltimore had four homicides, the lowest total for any single month since at least 1970.
- ▪So far in 2026, there have been 38 murders compared to 51 during the same period last year.
- ▪Baltimore's new mayor and prosecutor have introduced a focused deterrence program to address gang-related violence.
Opening excerpt (first ~120 words) tap to expand
Why are Murders Down in Baltimore? by Alex Tabarrok May 29, 2026 at 7:19 am in Current Affairs Economics Law In 2015 I wrote Baltimore Arrests are Down and Crime is Way Up and, as I predicted, Baltimore tipped into an high crime equilibrium. After the Freddie Gray riots, arrests declined and crime shot up but crime stayed high even after arrests rebounded. In my view, the surge fed on itself: higher crime strained police resources, and that strain—in and of itself—reduced the probability of punishment, sustaining the high-crime equilibrium, as in my crime wave paper. Yet, beginning around 2022 crime in Baltimore—most especially murders—began to fall. In April, Baltimore had four homicides, the lowest total for any single month since at least 1970.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at Marginal Revolution.
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