Why reluctant 'guru' says Dutch will win World Cup
Joachim Klement, a German economist, has developed a predictive model for the World Cup that has accurately forecasted the winners since 2014. His latest prediction suggests that the Netherlands will win the upcoming tournament, which would align with his previous successful forecasts. Klement emphasizes that while systemic factors play a role, luck is a significant component in determining match outcomes.
- ▪Klement's model has a 100% success rate in predicting World Cup winners since 2014.
- ▪He predicts the Netherlands will win the World Cup, becoming the fourth predicted winner to fulfill his model's prophecy.
- ▪Klement warns that while systemic factors matter, luck plays a crucial role in match outcomes.
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| Original publisher | BBC Sport |
| Canonical URL | https://www.bbc.co.uk/sport/football/articles/c20223n3k4yo |
| Publication time | Wed, 27 May 2026 22:16:11 +0000 |
| Retrieval time | 2026-05-27T22:38:06.181Z |
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Why reluctant 'guru' says Dutch will win World CupImage source, Getty ImagesImage caption, The Netherlands is arguably the strongest footballing nation never to have won a World CupByFlora SnelsonBBC Sport journalistPublished26 May 2026When Paul the Octopus predicted all of Germany's results correctly at the 2010 World Cup, he was hailed by the world as an oracle.But German economist Joachim Klement has trumped Paul with a complex forecast model which has kept a 100% record of predicting the World Cup winner since 2014.The Netherlands would become the fourth of four predicted winners to fulfil Klement's statistical prophecy if they lift the trophy in July.As well as the winners, his model maps out the breadth of the 48-team tournament - from a surprise win for Japan against Brazil in the…
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