5 results for "scenario analysis"
Artificial General Intelligence Forecasting and Scenario Analysis: State of the Field, Methodological Gaps, and Strategic Implications
In this report, we review the current state of methodologies to forecast the arrival of artificial general intelligence, assess their reliability, and analyze the implications for strategy and policy.…
Analytica: Soft Propositional Reasoning for Robust and Scalable LLM-Driven Analysis
Large language model (LLM) agents are increasingly tasked with complex real-world analysis (e.g., in financial forecasting, scientific discovery), yet their reasoning suffers from stochastic instabili…
An Information-Geometric Framework for Stability Analysis of Large Language Models under Entropic Stress
As large language models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes and operational settings, evaluation strategies based solely on aggregate accuracy are often insucient to characterize system r…
Information-Theoretic Measures in AI: A Practical Decision Guide
Information-theoretic (IT) measures are ubiquitous in artificial intelligence: entropy drives decision-tree splits and uncertainty quantification, cross-entropy is the default classification loss, mut…
Expert Evaluation of LLM's Open-Ended Legal Reasoning on the Japanese Bar Exam Writing Task
Large language models (LLMs) have shown strong performance on legal benchmarks, including multiple-choice components of bar exams. However, their capacity for generating open-ended legal reasoning in …