2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots
The 2026 Senate races present a challenging landscape for Democrats, who need to gain four seats to secure a majority amid an unfavorable map. While North Carolina is the most likely seat to flip due to Republican Sen. Thom Tillis's retirement, toss-up races in Maine, Michigan, and Ohio will be critical battlegrounds. Both parties remain optimistic, with Democrats banking on strong candidates and national trends, while Republicans rely on the state leanings and incumbency advantages.
- ▪North Carolina is rated as Lean Democratic after Sen. Thom Tillis announced his retirement, with former Gov. Roy Cooper running against Republican Michael Whatley.
- ▪Maine's Senate race is a toss-up as Sen. Susan Collins faces a challenge from progressive candidate Graham Platner after Janet Mills dropped out of the Democratic primary.
- ▪Michigan and Ohio are also rated as toss-ups, with Democrats recruiting former Sen. Sherrod Brown in Ohio and Republicans fielding former congressman Mike Rogers in Michigan.
- ▪Democrats need a net gain of four Senate seats to win control due to President Trump's hold on the White House and the vice president's tie-breaking role in the Senate.
- ▪Republican-held seats in North Carolina, Maine, and Ohio are under threat, while Democrats defend their open seat in Michigan.
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Analysis 2026 Senate races to watch: From most likely to flip to Democratic long shots May 2, 20265:00 AM ET Domenico Montanaro The U.S. Capitol Building is visible in the early morning hours of April 2. Andrew Harnik/Getty Images hide caption toggle caption Andrew Harnik/Getty Images Stay up to date with our Politics newsletter, sent weekly. The national political environment is a difficult one for Republicans. President Trump is facing record-low approval ratings, his war in Iran is unpopular, and views of the economy continue to be negative. With the GOP's razor-thin majority in the House, all of that has made Democrats the odds-on favorites to pick up the lower chamber.
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