Australia’s south-east set for drier and hotter winter as BoM forecasts potential El Niño

The sun rises in Sydney, NSW. Drier weather conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland in May, June and July 2026 due to El Niño. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The GuardianView image in fullscreenThe sun rises in Sydney, NSW. Drier weather conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland in May, June and July 2026 due to El Niño. Photograph: Mike Bowers/The GuardianAustralia weatherAustralia’s south-east set for drier and hotter winter as BoM forecasts potential El NiñoQueensland and NSW set for lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, while temperatures in most of the country likely to be higher than normal Follow our Australia news live blog for latest updates Get our breaking news email, free app or daily news podcast Graham ReadfearnMon 27 Apr 2026 02.26 EDTLast modified on Mon 27 Apr 2026 02.28 EDTSharePrefer the Guardian on GoogleLarge parts of south-east Australia look set for drier and hotter conditions over the next three months as a potential El Niño weather phenomenon takes shape in the Pacific Ocean.Much of Queensland and New South Wales are forecast to have lower than usual rainfall in May, June and July, with almost the entire country likely to experience hotter than average maximum temperatures.‘Non-survivable’: heatwaves are already breaching human limits, with worse to come, study findsRead moreThe World Meteorological Organization said last week there was an increasing chance of an El Niño developing in the Pacific – a phenomenon that historically has increased the chances of hotter and drier conditions for Australia’s east.El Niño events also tend to push up global temperatures, with some climate experts saying an event later this year could help set global heat records in 2027.View image in fullscreenAreas in red are expected to see higher than average maximum temperatures from May to July. Illustration: Bureau of MeteorologyEl Niño is characterised by warmer than usual ocean waters in the tropical Pacific and a weakening or reversal of easterly trade winds which can both keep cloud and rain away from Australia’s east.Sign up for the Breaking News Australia emailThe Bureau of Meteorology has said there is still disagreement among weather models, but most show sea surface temperatures consistent with an El Niño could be in place by July.Caitlin Minney, a climatologist at the Bureau of Meteorology, said a developing El Niño was likely one of the factors behind the dry forecast.“May to July looks like rainfall will likely be below average for much of eastern Australia,” she said.While the drier conditions are expected to be concentrated in NSW and Queensland, the forecast also suggests parts of northern and western Victoria, southern parts of South Australia and the south-west of Western Australia could also be dry.The bureau is also watching conditions in the Indian Ocean where some models are suggesting ocean temperatures to Australia’s north-west could cool – another phenomenon that can lower the chance of rainfall over the continent.A catastrophic climate event is upon us. Here is why you’ve heard so little about it | George MonbiotRead moreDr Peter van Rensch, a climate scientist at Monash University, led a study last year into the affects of the cycle of warming and cooling in the Pacific – known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation – on Australian rainfall.He said El Niño’s influence on Australian rainfall has historically been at its greatest in the months of June and July…

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