El Niño one step closer as Pacific transition now fastest in 50 years
The Pacific Ocean is undergoing its fastest transition to El Niño conditions in 50 years, with sea surface temperatures rising rapidly since January. Climate models indicate a strong or potentially record-breaking El Niño event by late 2026, though a stronger event does not necessarily mean more severe drought or heat in Australia. While El Niño typically brings drier and warmer conditions to northern and eastern Australia, historical data shows only a weak correlation between event strength and impact severity.
- ▪The Pacific has warmed by over 1°C since January 2026, marking the fastest La Niña-to-El Niño transition since 1976.
- ▪The NIÑO3.4 index is at +0.23°C and could exceed the El Niño threshold of +0.8°C within weeks, with some models predicting a peak of +2.9°C by October.
- ▪Australia experienced one of its driest Aprils in decades, with about a third of the country receiving less than 1mm of rain.
- ▪Despite the potential for a record-strong El Niño, past events like 1997/98 had modest impacts, while weak El Niño years like 2002/03 led to severe drought.
- ▪Nine of the 10 driest winter–spring periods on record for eastern Australia occurred during El Niño years, according to the Bureau of Meteorology.
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El Niño warming could be unprecedented, but don't assume record drought in AustraliaBy ABC meteorologist Tom Saunders and weather reporter Tyne LoganTopic:WeatherWed 29 Apr 2026 at 6:08amWed 29 Apr 2026 at 6:08amWed 29 Apr 2026 at 6:08amThankfully for Australia, a record El Niño does not also suggest record drought or heat is on the cards. (ABC News: Che Chorley)abc.net.au/news/el-nino-pacific-transition-fastest-in-50-years/106617534Link copiedShareShare articleThe Pacific Ocean's continued rapid warming towards El Niño has firmed up the odds that Australia faces a warm and dry second half to 2026.And forecasts continue to increase estimates of El Niño's potential strength, with the Bureau of Meteorology's (BOM) latest modelling tipping a record event.But thankfully for Australia, a…
Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at ABC News (Australia).