Inflation could get in the way of Warsh's desire to cut interest rates, CNBC survey finds
Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh may struggle to meet President Trump's request for lower interest rates due to persistent high oil prices and inflation. A recent CNBC Fed Survey indicates that most respondents do not expect significant rate cuts this year. The average forecast for the funds rate suggests only a slight decline, reflecting concerns about inflation's impact on economic growth.
- ▪Only 58% of survey respondents anticipate any rate cut this year.
- ▪High oil prices are expected to increase inflation by 0.6 percentage points while reducing growth by half a point.
- ▪81% of respondents believe that crude prices will contribute to rising core inflation.
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Efforts by Fed chair nominee Kevin Warsh to satisfy President Donald Trump's demands for lower interest rates look likely to be stymied by high oil prices and inflation, according to respondents to the latest CNBC Fed Survey.Respondents on average are not fully pricing a single rate cut this year. Just 58% of the 26 respondents see any rate cut at all. The average funds rate is forecast to decline to 3.5%, or just 0.14 percentage point below the current rate, reflecting a combination of those who forecast one cut or more and those seeing the Fed on hold.
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