Iran launches airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar
Iran conducted airstrikes on US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar, signaling ongoing regional escalation. Prediction markets show a slight increase in the perceived likelihood of an Iranian regime collapse by May 31, rising to 4% from 3%, but traders do not expect rapid change. Market depth indicates large trades can influence prices, though current activity suggests limited expectation of near-term destabilization. The situation remains sensitive to military responses and potential leadership shifts within Iran.
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Iran’s Air Force launched sorties against US bases in Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. The market for Iranian regime fall by May 31 is at 4% YES, up from 3% yesterday. Market reaction The Iranian regime fall by April 30 market remains flat at 0% YES with just two days left. The May 31 market moved to 4% YES from 3% yesterday. The term structure shows only a 3-point increase over 31 days, meaning traders aren’t pricing in quick regime change. Why it matters Combined daily volume across the regime fall markets is $145,850 in USDC, with most activity in the May 31 contract. Order book depth shows it takes $260,467 to move the May 31 market by 5 points, a relatively thick book where large players have more influence. The largest move was a 47-point drop on April 28, driven by significant trades.
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