Iran responds to US deal amendments via Pakistani mediators: Axios
Iran has responded to U.S. amendments on a proposed deal to end the ongoing conflict through Pakistani mediators, signaling continued diplomatic engagement. Despite this, market indicators show minimal expectation for an immediate ceasefire, with the 'US-Iran Ceasefire' market at just 0.1% likelihood. The 'Iran Military Action' market remains at 100% YES, reflecting persistent expectations of military conflict even as talks continue.
- ▪Iran delivered its response to U.S. deal amendments via Pakistani mediators.
- ▪The 'US-Iran Ceasefire' market shows a 0.1% likelihood of a YES outcome.
- ▪The 'Iran Military Action' market remains at 100% YES.
- ▪Diplomatic efforts involve intermediaries including Pakistan, Turkey, and Egypt.
- ▪A fragile ceasefire has been in place since late March or early April 2026.
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## Market Snapshot The “US-Iran Ceasefire” market currently shows a 0.1% likelihood for a YES outcome, unchanged from the previous day. Meanwhile, the “Iran Military Action” market remains at 100% YES, indicating unchanged expectations of military conflict. ## Key Takeaways – Iran’s response through Pakistani mediators suggests continued diplomatic engagement, which may indicate a preference for negotiations over renewed conflict. – The unchanged pricing in the “US-Iran Ceasefire” market suggests that market participants see little immediate impact on the probability of a formal ceasefire announcement. – The “Iran Military Action” market’s steady pricing at 100% YES indicates persistent expectations of military engagement, despite ongoing diplomatic efforts.
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