Iran to submit revised peace proposal amid cautious market response

CNN reports that Iran is preparing to submit a revised peace proposal. The odds of a US-Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026, sit at 1.1% YES, down from 10% just 24 hours ago. Market reaction The news of a potential new proposal has barely moved the April 30 deadline market, but later dates tell a different story. The May 31 market is at 29.5% YES, and the June 30 market is at 43.5% YES. The 28-point gap between the April 30 and May 31 contracts suggests traders expect real progress in the coming month, just not by the end of April. Combined 24-hour face value across these markets is $5.3 million, with $854,588 in actual USDC traded. It takes $27,667 to move the April 30 market by five points, which indicates solid order book depth.

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