Iranian hardliners tighten grip, reducing odds of regime change
Iranian hardliners are consolidating power following the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei, contributing to a more stable regime despite regional tensions. Market indicators show declining probabilities for regime change, Reza Pahlavi's return, or leadership shifts by key 2024 deadlines. This stabilization reflects stronger control by figures like IRGC Major General Ahmad Vahidi and reduced expectations for near-term political upheaval.
- ▪The probability of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 is 5.5%, down from 6%.
- ▪The likelihood of the Iranian regime falling by June 30 has decreased to 6.5% from 8% the previous day.
- ▪The chance of an Iranian leadership change by December 31 has dropped to 33.5% from 40%.
- ▪Hardliners, including IRGC Major General Ahmad Vahidi, are consolidating control after the death of Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
- ▪Market participants view the regime as less vulnerable to immediate change due to strengthened hardliner control.
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## Market Snapshot The market for Reza Pahlavi entering Iran by June 30 shows a 5.5% YES probability, slightly down from 6%. The Iranian regime fall by June 30 is priced at 6.5% YES, down from 8% a day ago. The probability of an Iran leadership change by December 31 has decreased to 33.5% YES from 40% previously. ## Key Takeaways – The consolidation of power by Iranian hardliners appears to decrease the likelihood of Reza Pahlavi entering Iran, with odds slightly declining. – Market pricing suggests a reduced probability of the Iranian regime falling by June 30, consistent with a more stable regime. – The likelihood of an Iran leadership change by December 31 appears to have decreased, reflecting strengthened hardliner control.
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