Jim Cramer warns of economic decline amid rising US inflation
Jim Cramer has expressed concern over rising US inflation, citing a recent CPI report showing a 3.3% annual rate in March 2026, up from 2.4% in February. The increase is largely driven by a 12.5% jump in energy costs linked to the ongoing US-Iran conflict and compounded by US tariffs. Market expectations for a Federal Reserve rate cut by June 2026 have declined, reflecting growing skepticism about near-term monetary easing.
- ▪Inflation in the US reached 3.3% annually in March 2026, up from 2.4% in February.
- ▪Energy costs rose 12.5%, driven by disruptions from the ongoing US-Iran conflict.
- ▪Market pricing shows only a 4.5% chance of a Fed rate cut by June 2026, down from 8% a week earlier.
- ▪The rise in inflation has increased the likelihood of dissent among Federal Reserve members at the April 2026 meeting.
- ▪Upcoming economic data and developments in the US-Iran conflict will be critical in shaping future Fed policy decisions.
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## Market Snapshot The “Fed rate cut by June 2026 meeting” market is currently priced at 4.5% YES, down from 6% yesterday and 8% a week ago. The market for a rate cut by September 2026 is at 29.4% YES, down from 50% a week ago. ## Key Takeaways – The latest CPI inflation report appears to decrease the likelihood of a Fed rate cut by June 2026, with markets adjusting to persistent inflationary pressures. – Pricing suggests an increase in potential dissent at the April Fed meeting, as hawkish members may push against rate cuts due to rising inflation concerns. – Market activity is consistent with a decrease in the probability of rate cuts after the April 2026 meeting, reflecting ongoing inflation worries.
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