‘Madman Theory’ Confronts a Real Madman
The article examines the use of the 'madman theory' in U.S. foreign policy, where leaders project unpredictability to gain strategic advantage. It traces the concept from Nixon to Trump, highlighting how Trump’s erratic style has applied this approach to conflicts with North Korea and Iran. While feigned irrationality has historical precedent, Trump’s version introduces unprecedented volatility into American diplomacy.
- ▪The 'madman theory' involves projecting unpredictable or irrational behavior to deter adversaries in international relations.
- ▪Richard Nixon is commonly associated with the madman theory, but the book argues this understanding oversimplifies his actual strategy.
- ▪Donald Trump employed threatening rhetoric toward North Korea and Iran, including threats of massive military retaliation, without achieving clear policy outcomes.
- ▪The approach reached a peak when Trump threatened to destroy the foundations of the Iranian state, followed by an ambiguous ceasefire.
- ▪Author James D. Boys argues that the use of unpredictability in U.S. foreign policy has deep historical roots, contrary to the belief it began with Nixon.
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‘Madman Theory’ Confronts a Real MadmanPretend irrationality has long been a part of U.S. foreign policy. Now we have the real thing.Brian StewartMay 01, 2026SharePresident Donald Trump prepares to leave after speaking during an event at Verst Logistics on March 11, 2026 in Hebron, Kentucky. (Photo by Andrew Harnik/Getty Images)US Grand Strategy and the Madman TheoryFrom Nixon to Trumpby James D. BoysManchester, 288 pp., $21.95 (paperback)FEIGNED INSANITY IS NOT A NEW development in international politics. Niccolò Machiavelli observed in Discourses on Livy that “It is a very wise thing to simulate madness.”A certain appetite for risk and the use of deception is essential to effective diplomacy in a violent and anarchic world.
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Excerpt limited to ~120 words for fair-use compliance. The full article is at The Bulwark.
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