Monthly Macro Monitor: A Lot Of Noise, Little Effect
The first 15 months of President Trump’s second term have brought numerous high-profile policy changes, but their actual economic impact remains limited. Despite market-moving reactions to some data, most economic reports are noisy and subject to revision. Indicators like the unemployment rate and dollar index show modest shifts, with little conclusive evidence of broad structural changes. Overall, the macroeconomic environment reflects more noise than meaningful effect.
- ▪The unemployment rate for US-born workers is 4.3%, unchanged from January 2025.
- ▪In Trump’s first term, steel tariffs led to 3,200 jobs added in steel production but an estimated 75,000 job losses in steel-consuming industries.
- ▪The dollar index is down about 1% over the last year and has underperformed relative to the 3-year average and the 10-year Treasury.
- ▪Economic reports that significantly move markets are rare, and most data are later revised, reducing their reliability.
- ▪Markets continue to react to policy announcements, but tangible economic effects from the first 15 months of Trump’s second term remain minimal.
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