NBA Draft Lottery reform 101: How does the league's '3-2-1' proposal work? Will it really stop tanking?
The NBA is considering a '3-2-1' draft lottery proposal starting in 2027 that reduces odds for the three worst teams to discourage tanking, expands the lottery to 16 teams including Play-In losers, and allows all 16 picks to be drawn with greater potential draft range. The system includes restrictions on consecutive top picks, removes protections for picks 12–15 in trades, and grants the commissioner expanded power to penalize tanking. A sunset clause limits the rule to drafts through 2029, allowing evaluation and adjustment. While the plan aims to reduce incentive for losing, critics argue it may shift tanking behavior to games involving Play-In teams.
- ▪The '3-2-1' proposal gives the three worst teams only two lottery balls each, reducing their odds at the No. 1 pick from 14% to 5.4%.
- ▪Sixteen teams would enter the lottery, including non-playoff teams, No. 9 and 10 seeds, and losers of the No. 7 vs. No. 8 Play-In games.
- ▪All 16 draft positions would be drawn, allowing teams to fall as low as No. 12 (for bottom-three teams) or No. 16 (for others).
- ▪Teams would be barred from winning the No. 1 pick in consecutive years or picking in the top five in three straight drafts.
- ▪The proposal includes a sunset provision, expiring after the 2029 draft, aligning with potential CBA changes.
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NBA Draft Lottery reform 101: How does the league's '3-2-1' proposal work? Will it really stop tanking? The so-called '3-2-1' system would go into effect for the 2027 draft if approved By Sam Quinn Apr 28, 2026 at 8:30 pm ET • 6 min read Getty Images Tanking has been one of the primary stories of the 2025-26 NBA season and the league has spent the past several months searching for solutions. It fined teams like the Utah Jazz and Indiana Pacers for tanking-related offenses, conducted several calls with general managers, batted around multiple concepts, and, according to ESPN's Shams Charania, has now settled on a proposal that would begin with the 2027 draft lottery.So, how would the proposed new system work? Here is everything you need to know about the proposed restructuring.What are the…
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