'One of the most rapid transitions that I've seen': NOAA forecaster on how this year's El Niño could shatter records
NOAA forecaster Nathaniel Johnson warns that this year's transition to El Niño could be one of the fastest on record, potentially leading to record-high global temperatures. El Niño, a phase of the ENSO cycle, typically raises sea surface temperatures in the Pacific and influences weather worldwide. Current forecasts suggest a 25% chance of a 'very strong' El Niño by November, which could exacerbate extreme weather events globally.
- ▪El Niño events occur every two to seven years and are characterized by increased sea surface temperatures in the eastern central equatorial Pacific.
- ▪NOAA defines El Niño conditions when sea surface temperatures in the eastern central equatorial Pacific exceed 0.5°C above the tropical average.
- ▪The 2024 El Niño contributed to the year being the hottest on record globally.
- ▪There is a 25% chance that the 2026 El Niño will be 'very strong' by November, with sea surface temperatures rising 2°C above average.
- ▪Past El Niño events have been linked to severe global impacts including droughts, floods, famines, and civil conflicts.
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Planet Earth Weather 'One of the most rapid transitions that I've seen': NOAA forecaster on how this year's El Niño could shatter records Nathaniel Johnson, a member of NOAA's El Niño forecasting team, says that this year's transition to El Niño could be the fastest on record. By Sophie Berdugo published 1 May 2026 in Interview When you purchase through links on our site, we may earn an affiliate commission. Here’s how it works. El Niño is poised to bring record-high temperatures to every part of the planet.
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